Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Good evening all!

Cycling back to the Lindsay time system for insight into what's coming up.

So here's three examples Lindsay gave of originating formations:

...from there you count 107 calendar days to a major top (plus or minus a few days)

The bottom example is the one we used last time.  Although we got a really good decline that day, it wasn't THE top.  So we're going to take another shot at it using the other two formations.

Below are three arrows to the origins.  The first is our first attempt and we received only limited results.


Giving the two remaining examples, the formation looks the most like number two, except if you bring in Global S&P:



...so we'll keep an eye out for both.  Also let's consider the current short term cycle model I came up with:


Since April, price has been following an alternating up/down pattern.  However, backtesting has shown cycles will occasionally go twice as fast (as seen in late March) or twice as slow where it takes two cycles to make a complete "up" or "down" (example not shown).

I'm going to guess that alternation will continue, which means it will go down or consolidate here.

I'm also going to say that the 2nd Lindsay example is the correct one and the top will happen on the next up cycle which ends on the 13th.

My play:  I'm going for it and going short at market price tomorrow morning (other factors include the full moon that happened last trading day, yada yada).  Price may go higher, but it must CLOSE lower than the previous close or I'm out.  I'm looking for the biggest down candle on Friday the 6th to correspond with the 3rd Lindsay pattern (which I don't think will be THE top, but should still make a sizeable bear candle).  Then in correspondence with the short term cycles, I'm looking for price to reverse early next week and go up for the week.

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